Is It a Good Time to Buy?

"Is it a good time to buy?" Every buyer asks it, and most of them are really asking two different questions: "Will prices or rates drop if I wait?" and "Can I afford to buy now?" The first question has no honest answer, so this page does not try. The second question has a real answer, and it lives in four inputs that are all sitting in front of you.

The buy-now-versus-wait worksheet

Build the worksheet with four labeled inputs, each dated, and update it whenever a quote or market figure changes:

1. Your budget and debt picture: gross monthly income, current debts, and the housing payment you can qualify for under your loan program.
2. Dated loan quotes: rate, APR, closing costs, and mortgage insurance from the lenders you compare, quoted on the same day.
3. Your lease cost: what you pay to rent today, and what renewing the lease would cost.
4. Selected-home comparables: the actual homes you are considering and what similar homes in those neighborhoods have closed for recently.

The worksheet then answers the only timing question that matters: compared on the same period, does owning the home you want beat continuing to rent, using your numbers, your quote, and your comparables? That is a calculation, not a crystal ball.

Step 1: your budget and debt picture

Start with the three numbers lenders actually underwrite: gross monthly income, total monthly debts, and the monthly payments (principal, interest, taxes, insurance, HOA, and mortgage insurance) you can support under your program's debt-to-income limits. The CFPB's homebuying resources explain these inputs in plain language and walk through the calculation. No lender can approve a payment that breaks your ability-to-repay ratios, so this step sets the honest ceiling for everything that follows.

Step 2: dated loan quotes

Same-day quotes from the lenders you compare, each on the Loan Estimate form, give you the rate, APR, origination charges, and closing costs that belong to your file on that date. Rates move weekly, so the date is part of the quote: comparing a quote from last month to one from today is comparing different markets. I quote all of my clients' comparisons on the same day for this reason.

Step 3: your lease cost, on the same period

Write down what you pay in rent today, what your lease renewal would cost, and what rent for a comparable home would cost. Then compare both sides over the same holding period, including the rent you pay while you wait and the equity you give up on the buy side. Waiting is never free: it costs the rent you keep paying and the home you may lose to another buyer.

Step 4: selected-home comparables

Narrow the worksheet to the homes you are actually considering, then look at what similar homes in those neighborhoods closed for in the last six months. This is where a local agent earns his keep: the comparable list should be built from closed sales of similar size, condition, and location, adjusted honestly, not from list prices or a national headline.

What the data says, and what it does not say

Market reports are useful when you read them with the period attached. Two places to check with that discipline in mind:

• CFPB homebuying resources: the consumer bureau's official guides to the buying process, affordability, and lender rules, updated as federal rules change.
• Redfin market snapshots: metro-level median sale price, days on market, and sale-to-list figures by named period, and SABOR's monthly releases for San Antonio with the report month attached.

A median price tells you what the middle of the market did in a specific period, not what your target home will fetch. Days on market tells you how long listings sat in that period, not how long yours would. Read every figure with its source and date, compare figures from the same period, and never let a headline make the decision your worksheet should make.

Frequently Asked Questions